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OP I N ION BY JIM MIDDLEMISS BACK PAGE Crime stats Scott Newark and Ian Lee. In February and March, Newark, a T former Crown counsel, and Lee, a busi- ness professor with a PhD in public policy at Carleton University, had the audacity to challenge recent Statistics Canada conclu- sions about crime in the country. There is a perception among many Canadians that crime is on the rise. However, naysayers from the defend-the- criminal lobby insist that's not the case, citing StatsCan reports to back them up. A 2009 StatsCan study on police-reported crime found: • police-reported crime in Canada contin- ues to decline, in severity and volume; • the crime severity index decreased four per cent and was 22-per-cent lower than in 1999; • violent crime is declining, down one per cent, and the violent crime severity index was down six per cent from a decade ago; and • most violent crimes declined, including homicide, serious assaults, sexual assaults, and robbery, however, there were increas- es in attempted murder, extortion, fire- arms offences, and criminal harassment. That all sounds well and nice. However, Newark and Lee — writing in papers prepared for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa think-tank — looked behind the numbers to paint an entirely different picture. Their findings are concerning. While violent crime may be declining in the near term, it is up dramatically over the long term. Newark thoughtfully reviews the Statistics Canada reports and methodolo- gies, essentially cross-examining them the way a lawyer would cross-examine an expert witness. He pokes holes at short- comings in the way Statistics Canada slic- es and dices data. Among his concerns: o borrow from Mark Twain, there are lies, damn lies when Statistics Canada reports on crime. That is if you believe • the report provides incomplete offender information; • recent format changes are counterpro- ductive; • data on incidents of crime are lacking; • serious violent crime is increasing con- trary to the report's claim; • the crime severity index is not a suitable tool for gauging the incidence of crime; and • youth crime is systematically under- reported. Newark then went on to make a num- ber of thoughtful recommendations. Needless to say, this raised the hackles of the defend-the-criminal lobby, that left- wing cabal of criminologists, sociologists, lawyers, and activists who would rather hug killers than hang them. Their answer to crime is to mollycoddle criminals and all will be fine. They proceeded to skewer Newark's findings, accusing him of using inaccurate figures and ignoring evidence, calling his report "highly politicized" — as if their reports aren't. In March, Lee weighed into the debate with his own critique, using a range of government facts and figures to defend those who perceive crime to be a prob- lem in this country. He said the criticism of Newark's work reflected a "paternal- istic rejection of any questioning of the received wisdom, instead of engaging in an open-policy debate with Canadians." Lee found that violent crime has increased 500 per cent over 30 years. Moreover, he found only 34 per cent 54 M AY 2011 www. CANADIAN Lawyermag.com of crimes were reported, leading to a vast under-reporting of crimes, including sexual assaults (92 per cent unreported), physical assaults (61 per cent), and rob- beries (54 per cent). He then went on to examine incarceration rates and found an "extraordinarily low ratio of federal incar- ceration relative to crimes committed in 2009." There are about 14,000 people in federal prisons for a population of 34 mil- lion, a number he called a "vanishingly small percentage." Of that, 69 per cent are there because of violent crime. He then examined prison statistics and found that Canada's rate of incar- ceration is below average for a developed nation. Based on federal incarcerations, Canada was below every European country, including places like Sweden, Finland, and Norway. He said Canada spends 2.5 per cent of its budget on its criminal justice system, which he called a "very small percentage to protect Canadians and ensure the rule of law." He noted that no federal prison has been built since 1988 and 28 federal prisons are more than 40 years old, which is near the end of a jail's life cycle. At least three prisons date back to the 1800s. The business professor concluded that Correctional Service of Canada's $230- million capital budget is "profoundly insufficient and completely inadequate in light of the large number of much older federal penitentiaries." Newark and Lee's reports are a wel- come addition to the argument about crime in Canada. They are adding a cred- ible and valuable voice to the discussion. Their work is a welcome respite from the usual tripe produced by Canada's criminologists. Let's hope their voices aren't drowned out by those who value criminals over victims. Jim Middlemiss is a Toronto lawyer and co-owner of WebNews Management Corp. He can be reached at jmiddlemiss@ webnewsmanagement.com. don't add up scott page